The Investing Edge

by Seeking Alpha

57m

average length

39

episodes

2

followers

The Investing Edge features shows from some of Seeking Alpha's top authors, focused on their unique investment strategies and styles. Authors will speak with CEOs and industry experts, break down key market stories and topics, and share insights on how they research new investments.

Best The Investing Edge episodes upvoted by the community

Last updated on May 28, 2020, 3:59 am

#1

Value Investor's Edge Live #8: Diamond S's Management On The Product Tanker Market

December 19, 2019 • 41m

Craig Stevenson, CEO of Diamond S Shipping (DSSI), and Kevin Kilcullen, CFO, joined Value Investor's Edge last Thursday, December 12th, to discuss the product tanker and Suezmax crude shipping markets ahead of pending IMO 2020 regulations. We reviewed capital allocation priorities and why they believe their stock price has been underperforming, and what they plan to do going forward. This conversation is relevant for anyone long the product tanker or the crude tanker sector, including Ardmore Shipping (ASC), DHT Holdings (DHT), Euronav (EURN), Frontline (FRO), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Teekay Tankers (TNK), Torm plc (TRMD) or Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics Covered 0:45 minute mark - Start of discussion- Market review: any IMO 2020 impacts 2:25 - Product rates are lagging crude, what is driving this separation?  5:25 - Should we expect a significant spike in rates? Any disruptions yet?  7:55 - DSSI trades at a significant discount? How to address PE overhang?  11:20 - How is the market shaping up for product/crude versus Q3 guidance?  16:10 - Any new charters? Looking for cover here? Current 1-2y charter rates?  18:35 - Any desire to add additional scrubbers to the Suezmax fleet? 22:25 - What trade flows are we seeing with MGO and VLSFO? Sources?  27:15 - What efforts can DSSI take to reach to peer valuation levels?  29:45 - How do you view capital allocation priorities?  32:25 - Tackling 2021 maturities yet? Timing on those?  35:35 - How is management compensation structured? Fleet growth?  37:35 - Is DSSI available for sale at the right price?

0

0

0

#9

Value Investor's Edge Live #4: Star Bulk Carriers' President On The Dry Bulk Market

October 31, 2019 • 37m

Hamish Norton, President of Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), along with Simos Spyrou and Christos Begleris, Co-CFOs, and Constantinos Simantiras, Head of Market Research joined Value Investor's Edge Live on October 1 2019 to discuss the dry bulk shipping markets and disruptions ahead of pending IMO 2020 regulations. We reviewed their sizable scrubber program and expectations for slow steaming into 2020 along with capital allocation priorities as results turn strongly profitable. This conversation is relevant for anyone long dry bulk shipping names including Diana Shipping (DSX), Eagle Bulk (EGLE), Genco Shipping (GNK), Golden Ocean (GOGL), Navios Maritime Partners (NMM), Safe Bulkers (SB), Scorpio Bulkers (SALT), or Seanergy Maritime (SHIP).  Topics covered: 0:30 minute mark - Start of discussion / How is the overall dry bulk market developing? 4:15 - How is IMO 2020 developing so far? Any distortions in the markets?  5:15 - Have there been any delays to SBLK's scrubber installations? 8:20 - Where is your fleet positioned, Atlantic vs. Pacific? Rate differences? 10:20 - What is the impact of the US-China trade war? Meaningful impact? 13:45 - Are Chinese environmental initiatives impacting the markets? 16:00 - What is causing the recent Capesize rate decline? 18:20 - Can we expect dividends soon? End of year? 21:30 - Potential for more fleet acquisitions? Criteria?  22:45 - Impact of scrubbers on future earnings potential? 26:30 - Is there any charter activity for scrubber-equipped vessels? 30:30 - Star Bulk still trades at a huge discount to NAV, any plans to fix? 33:00 - Repurchases v. Dividends Discussion.

0

0

0

#10

Value Investor's Edge Live #11: DHT Holdings' Co-CEOs On The VLCC Markets

January 30, 2020 • 34m

In a continuation of the first ever Virtual Investor Forum on Value Investor's Edge, J Mintzmyer hosted Svein Harfjeld and Trygve Munthe, co-CEOs of DHT Holdings (DHT), on January 16th, to discuss the VLCC markets and their current scrubber program and capital allocation priorities. They reiterated the strong prioritization of dividends while also ensuring the balance sheet remains very conservative- even targeting the potential for zero net debt in the future. Topics Covered 1:30 minute mark - How is IMO 2020 impacting the markets? Any surprises?  3:30 - What fuel spreads are you seeing? Expectations on forward moves? 5:00 - Current progress of the scrubber program? 6 ships still deferred? 8:00 - Any indications of a 2nd wave of installations? Doing more? 9:15 - How long will it take for you to install the last 6 scrubbers? 11:15 - Any pickup in HSFO storage? Are you participating in this market? 12:45 - Any indications of COSCO sanctions impact? Recent changes? 15:00 Why would the trade deal potentially be positive for DHT? 16:45 - With regards to the recent weakness, what are you seeing? 19:30 - Some of your top concerns in the market into 2020? 21:45 - Current capital allocation priorities? 24:00 - Target leverage? Down to zero net debt? 26:30 - How will the convertible notes factor into your structure? 27:45 - Are investors missing anything in these markets? 29:45 - Thoughts on the charter market? Willing to take cover? 31:45 - Standard reporting timing for Q4-19? Early February?

0

0

0

#11

The Razor's Edge #2: Domino's Pizza And The Short Delivery

October 24, 2019 • 67m

This week’s The Razor’s Edge looks at Domino’s Pizza (DPZ). You might be aware of the company’s turnaround in the 2010s, reinvigorating their brand and delivering steady and impressive stock market returns. You might also be aware that the company has been a target of short sellers over the back half of the decade, as they scaled to high multiples and a more levered balance sheet. And, if you’re following DPZ actively, you may have seen the stock sell off after missing its Q3 earnings numbers, and then rebound after CEO Ritch Allison’s commentary around the unsustainability of 3rd party order aggregators. We discuss Domino’s rise and whether it’s now poised for a fall. The comps have slowed and the stock has followed, flat for the last 15 months or so. Does that portend a change in direction? Topics Covered: 2:30 minute mark – What happened in the Q3 report with the miss but then positive returns? 6::30 – the food aggregators excuse? 8:30 – the simple Domino’s bull thesis 12:00 – The missed tech play for Domino’s and the changing economics around delivery 15:00 – How do the food aggregators change the game 17:30 – Domino’s temporary argument 19:00 – The fading Papa John’s tailwind 24:00 – Domino’s remedies to counter these headwinds 28:45 – The buyback problem 32:00 – Why Domino’s and not other related plays? 36:00 – The variety on the market now and the pricing tailwinds 43:00 – Gaming out the short thesis 49:00 – The short for boring shorts? 57:30 – The international angle 1:02:00 – The food aggregators aren’t going away

0

0

0

#12

Value Investor's Edge Live #15: Virtual Investor Forum on COVID-19 and Oil Price War, With International Seaways Management

March 19, 2020 • 42m

The last time J Mintzmyer and Value Investor's Edge hosted a virtual investor forum featuring industry analysts, management teams, and investors, all the way back in January 2020, it was like another world. IMO 2020 was still the buzzword, post New Year cyclicality was driving behavior, and coronavirus looked like it was a local issue in China. A lot has changed in two months. As Mintzmyer and the VIE team gather a new round of participants for a COVID-19 and Oil Price War focused forum this week, one of the themes is how that situation has changed. And there's no better place to start than with International Seaways (INSW). CEO Lois Zabrocky and CFO Jeff Pribor took part in the first forum - it was our most recent VIE episode posted - so it offers an easy compare and contrast. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark: What is the immediate impact of COVID-19 to your markets?  3:15 - How much follow-on activity is coming out of China?  4:45 - Any non-traditional routes developing due to the oil price war?  6:00 - How does INSW benefit from this market? 8:00 - Is the Suezmax market benefitting from this strength?  10:45 - How is the Panamax market performing now?  12:00 - MR product tanker market update?  13:45 - Any indications of potential product market storage?  14:45 - Have you adjusted your operations, shoreside and at-sea for COVID?  17:30 - IMO 2020 transition and scrubber update?  21:15 - Current timeline of scrubber installations in China (60 days!) 22:30 - Can you delay or back-out of scrubber installations?  25:00 - What is your current and target balance sheet leverage?  28:00 - Restrictive covenants in the current debt facility for repurchases?  29:45 - Commentary on dividends and share repurchases?

0

0

0

#14

Value Investor's Edge Live #14: International Seaways' Management On The Tanker Markets

February 27, 2020 • 56m

J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge Live spoke with Lois Zabrocky and Jeff Pribor, CEO and CFO of International Seaways (INSW), to discuss their views on the tanker markets and IMO 2020. This followed on INSW's investor day in January, and comes in advance of the company's Q4 earnings report. Topics Covered 1:15 minute mark - Any surprises or different impacts in the markets? 3:00 - Impact from the lightering business? Additional EBITDA? 5:00 - Rate and fixture guidance? Old VLs doing well, Aframaxes poor? 7:45 - Difference between spot and TC fixture guidance? 8:45 - How do today’s rates compare to last year’s levels? 10:00 - Anything else impacting the market? Just seasonality? 12:45 - How are the Suezmax and Aframax spot markets doing? 13:30 - Priorities for cash flow allocation post-refinancing? 16:30 - Plans for INSW-A baby bonds? Call this summer? 19:15 - How do you balance dividends and repurchases now? 23:30 - Thoughts on current NAV range? How far underneath? 27:00 - What are some of the top risk factors in this market? 31:00 - If China imports from US, what sources are they replacing? 36:45 - Current status of the scrubber program? Any additions? 40:00 - All 2020 capex ($70M) internally financed from cash? 40:45 - More risks in the market which aren’t getting reviewed? 42:30 - Willing to look for time-charters? Where are they at now? 49:15 - Viewpoints on FSO joint-venture? Core to business? 53:00 - Closing comments- MR market, any resilience there?

0

0

0

#17

Value Investor's Edge Live #13: Frontline CEO Robert Hvide Macleod On Crude Tanker Markets

February 13, 2020 • 43m

On January 14th, Value Investor's Edge Live hosted Robert Hvide Macleod, CEO of Frontline (FRO), to discuss the crude tanker markets and their balance strategy to IMO 2020. Frontline is one of the largest tanker operators in the world and is backed by shipping legend John Fredriksen. FRO is set to pay large dividends in this market and they have maintained a premium valuation ahead of peers. Robert discusses the various tanker segments and his overall viewpoints and areas of focus into the new year. Topics covered: 0:50 minute mark - Start of discussion: How is IMO 2020 impacting tankers? Any surprises?  3:00 - What is your current scrubber uptake status? Global fleet percentage?  4:30 - What is the current spread dynamic? Any plans to expand scrubbers?  7:15 - Will the time charter markets follow the strength in the spot markets?  10:00 - What is driving Suezmax strength and Aframax strength?  13:45 - Will eco-vessels improve your TCE results? How much?  14:45 - Confirm fleet splits of scrubber installations?  15:45 - Any broad market concerns for tankers? Why are stocks stalling?  17:30 - What are your capital allocation priorities besides the dividend?  19:15 - FRO trades at a premium, why is that a potential benefit?  22:00 - What is your target leverage? Planned split between spot and TC?  25:45 - Why is LR2 weak compared to the strong Aframax market?  28:00 - What are some of the key risks and uncertainties in the market?  31:00 - If placing a newbuild order, what type of design? LNG? Scrubber?  34:00 - How long are yards backed up with scrubber conversion work?  35:15 - Any potential for consolidation in the tanker sector? Frontline role?  36:00 - How many ships are laid up for COSCO sanctions? Potential impact?  40:00 - What is the market missing right now?

0

0

0